The global economy, weighed down by tensions that have stalled international trade and elevated uncertainty, is expected to see slower growth in the next half decade across a wide swath of economies.
China’s growth rate is expected to continue to slow, and will be a smaller driver to global GDP growth in the near term. China’s share of global GDP growth is expected to fall from 32.7% in 2018-2019 to 28.3% by 2024 — a relatively steep 4.4 percentage point reduction.
Weaker global growth, expected to fall to 3% this year and the slowest since the global financial crisis, will affect 90% of the world, according to estimates released this week by the International Monetary Fund.
Which economies are the key players now and where will global growth come from in five years? Bloomberg used International Monetary Fund projections, adjusted for purchasing power parity, to identify these growth engines.
Drivers of Growth in 2019
Drivers of Growth in 2024
The U.S., while still expected to contribute a sizable portion to world growth, is projected to fall to third place, after India. America’s share of global growth is expected to slip from 13.8% to 9.2% by 2024, while India’s share is projected to rise to 15.5% and eclipse the U.S. over this five-year period.
Indonesia will remain in the fourth spot as its economy is expected to have a 3.7% growth share in 2024, a slight downward adjustment from 3.9% in 2019.
The U.K. will see its importance wane amid Brexit as its economy drops from ninth as a share of world growth in 2019, to 13th.
Although world GDP growth attributable to Russia is at 2% now and expected to stay there in five years, the country is likely to displace Japan as the number five growth contributor. Japan will fall to the ninth spot by 2024. Brazil is projected to move up from No. 11 to No. 6. Germany’s share of growth is expected to remain at 1.6% and 7th on the list.
The IMF said new growth engines among the top 20 countries in five years will include Turkey, Mexico, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, while Spain, Poland, Canada and Vietnam drop out of the first 20.